A steady increase in the number of live births, as well as rising immigration, will spur Bahrain’s population to jump by a hefty 102 per cent to reach 2.6 million in the next two decades, the latest demographics study from Euromonitor International has revealed
Like its neighbouring Gulf states, Bahrain’s demographics represent a sizeable number of expatriates, who currently account for nearly 52 per cent of its total population. This figure, however, is relatively smaller compared to other GCC countries such as the UAE where foreigners account for over 80 per cent of the entire population.
The report, which was released this month, also expects foreign residents in Bahrain to slightly increase by a little more than one per cent by 2030. The minimal hike had been attributed to the government’s move to tighten immigration controls and strengthen its “Bahrainisation” policy, which seeks to promote local human resource and lessen the industries’ reliance on foreign workers.
“Labour market reforms aim to increase the cost of foreign labour to make hiring local employees more cost-effective. Foreigners reportedly make up nearly two-thirds of the labour force,” the Euromonitor report said.
Majority of foreign workers in Bahrain come from South Asia – mainly India, Bangladesh and Pakistan. However, the number of Southeast Asian expatriates from the Philippines and Indonesia is becoming considerable as well. Euromonitor estimates that by 2030, Asians will make up nearly half of Bahrain’s residents.
The report mentioned that the nationals’ share in total population has been dropping steadily over the past three decades. In 1980, Bahrainis accounted for 68.4 per cent of all residents, but by 2010 the share fell to 48.3 per cent.
The research firm expects this number to further drop to 47 per cent in 2018 and continue to hold on to that figure until 2030.
Ageing population on the rise
While Bahrain may see its population expanding to more than twice its current level by 2030, it will likewise witness an increasing number of residents in their late-50s. According to Euromonitor statistics, the population of people aged 57-75 years old will grow by more than 500 per cent between 2010 ad 2030.
“Despite rapid population gains, an ageing process is underway. For example, in 2010-2030 the number of those 60 and over will jump from 48,000 to 353,000. This group accounted for 3.7 per cent of total population in 2010 and in 2030 their share will be 13.5 per cent,” the report noted.
The anticipated increase in Bahrain’s greying population might pose challenges to the government. According to a separate study on emerging markets, also conducted by Euromonitor, an ageing population and declining birth rates add pressure on labour markets.
“Economic output will be reduced because the labour force will shrink as a larger number of people retire and this will increase the dependence on the existing workforce,” it said.
However, in last year’s Doha Business Roundtable in Qatar, participants discussed the potential opportunities that older population could open up to help lift Gulf economies such as investments in the pharmaceutical and healthcare-related industries.
Consequently, Euromonitor said that Bahrain’s longevity reflects the fact that it has one of the best healthcare systems in the region, which it has been developing over the past 30 years.
“If current standards are to be maintained, the combination of an expected population explosion and the ageing process will require a fivefold increase in healthcare spending in 2009-2025,” the research firm mentioned.
Younger age groups offer hope
As Bahrain faces the possibility of a greying population, the younger members of society are poised to compensate for the eventual need for manpower resource. Euromonitor statistics indicate that the number of those in the age group of 25-45 years old will surge to a whopping 1,055 per cent by 2030.
“By international standards, Bahrain’s population is relatively young but ageing rapidly. The median age of females will be 33.6 years in 2030 – 8.3 years greater than in 2010. Among males, the median age will be 37.0 years in 2030 – 6.8 years greater than in 2010,” Euromonitor noted.
The research company also expects the 30-39 age group to dominate or represent more than 17 per cent of the country’s male demographics as they post the highest increase of almost 136 per cent.
Likewise because of immigration, women between 30 and 39 will represent the largest group in 2030 – about 17 per cent of the total female population. Women are also expected to outlive men by 3.5 years in 2030, up slightly from 3.3 years in 2010. Euromonitor has attributed this to women’s healthier lifestyle and less riskier workplace.
Consider also reading:
UAE’s expat population to rise nearly 85pct by 2030
Dubai population up in Q2, job market rising
Bahrain economy may grow 4pct in 2010
Food prices drive UAE, Bahrain inflation
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