The CIO as Corporate Psychic

Chief information officers are expected to generate predictions about emerging technologies that companies can build strategies around. But most CIOs don’t like being cast in the role of corporate psychic, so here’s some advice on how to make the best of the role and do a better job of seeing the future:

DON’T FOLLOW THE HERD. It can be reassuring to sign up with one of the leading consulting firms. But overreliance on consultants can lead to groupthink, and research tells us that it’s impossible to predict the behavior of a large system (such as technological innovation) beyond the next few moves.

Therefore, CIOs should avoid relying on single sources, no matter how well respected, and widen the range of events they attend. For example, specialized trade shows and conferences, such as the MIT Sloan Business in Gaming Conference, can provide unique perspectives on emerging technologies and are refreshingly devoid of consultants and other CIOs. Chief information officers should mingle with vendors, customers, venture capitalists and academics. Better still, they should do this overseas.

CHOOSE YOUR DIVINING ROD CAREFULLY. Be skeptical of the white papers offered for free by vendors and research firms. Academic research is typically written for other academics and the level of detail is often atomic, requiring significant work to tie the constituent parts into a coherent vision.

As an alternative, CIOs can indulge in some reverse mentoring. One easy way to do this is to join the advisory board of a technology-focused department at a local university. By hosting lunches with faculty and student groups, CIOs can acquire insights from users, young and old.

THINK CAREFULLY BEFORE HIRING AN ADVISER. There are plenty of coaches and consultants who would gladly be a CIO’s personal psychic. But what if your adviser is misguided or doesn’t tell the whole truth? It’s natural for advisers to hedge rather than deliver bad news.

Instead of paying for an external adviser, CIOs should consider creating a company think tank with rotating membership. Members should be encouraged to go to nontraditional conferences, listen to webcasts and develop position papers. In addition, a CIO should find the time to do his own reading and create his own vision of the future.

Distributed by The New York Times Syndicate