Virtually every language has the clause “history repeats itself” and virtually every culture throughout history believes that there is a natural rhythm that repeats. If history does repeat itself and if nature does have a rhythm that repeats, then there has to be some regularity, i.e., patterns or cycles, to events giving clues as to how they might form and when they might occur.
If cycles and patterns do exist and repeat in some regular fashion, then how do they arise, how long do they last and perhaps most importantly, how can we predict ahead of time when they might occur so that we can better prepare for what is coming? And for the purpose of this article, how do these cycles and patterns affect business cycles and the economy in general, and how can we capitalize on this power of predictability?
Indeed, there is a complex universe of endless cycles within cycles interacting in what seems to be utter chaos. But despite the complexity and apparent chaos, the rhythm is there and the cycles can in principle be deciphered with a surprising degree of accuracy if one studies and correctly applies principles of history, mathematics, statistics, religion, philosophy, psychology and human behavior, among other fields. Here we only consider history to describe one recurring cycle of human behavior with four important turnings which we shall refer to as the four seasons: Spring, summer, Fall and Winter (see graph below).
The cycle that we describe here repeats every 84 to 89 years or so spanning approximately the length of a long human life. Within this cycle, there are four turning points occurring roughly every 21 to 22 years or so. Note that the two numbers 21 and 89 are Fibonacci numbers; the Fibonacci series is a mathematical series where countless natural cycles and phenomena follow closely. At the start of each turning point, people’s moods change. People change how they feel about themselves, the culture, the nation, and the future. The cycle and its four turnings comprise history’s seasonal rhythm of growth, maturation, entropy, and destruction. In their book “The Fourth Turning”, the two historians William Strauss and Neil Howe describe the four turnings as follows:
* The First Turning is a High, an upbeat era of strengthening institutions and weakening individualism, when a new civic order implants and the old values regime decays.
* The Second Turning is an Awakening, a passionate era of spiritual upheaval, when the civic order comes under attack from a new values regime.
* The Third Turning is an Unraveling, a downcast era of strengthening individualism and weakening institutions, when the old civic order decays and the new values regime implants.
* The Fourth Turning is a Crisis, a decisive era of secular upheaval, when the values regime propels the replacement of the old civic order with a new one.
The cycle and its four turnings are applicable to every nation, culture and society but may or may not happen at the same time in different nations, cultures and societies. But the four turnings are there and each turning comes with its identifiable mood. Here in the United States, for example, the cycle began around 1945 with the First Turning of an American high spirit as the U.S. emerged from World War II as a clear confident winner. That mood lasted about 21 years until the mid-1960’s when the Second Turning of the “Consciousness Revolution” began.
The Third Turning began around the mid-1980’s with President Reagan in power and lasted around 22 years or so until the 2007 collapse of the housing market that resulted in the financial crisis in 2008. The Fourth Turning or the “Crisis” mood began in 2008 sparked by the 2008-2009 financial crisis. It should last about 21 to 23 years ending roughly around 2030. So, winter is upon us and we cannot stop it, we can only prepare for its howling winds and potentially severe consequences both economically and culturally. The United States will be at a crossroad facing many difficult issues at their most fundamental levels including issues of race, class, union and national identity. William Strauss and Neil Howe described what may be in store for America’s future as follows:
“A sudden spark will catalyze a Crisis mood. Remnants of the old social order will disintegrate. Political and economic trust will implode. Real hardship will beset the land, with severe distress that could involve questions of class, race, nation, and empire. Yet this time of trouble will bring seeds of social rebirth. Americans will share a regret about recent mistakes – and a resolute new consensus about what to do. The very survival of the nation will feel at stake. Sometime before the year 2025, America will pass through a great gate in history, commensurate with the American Revolution, Civil War, and twin emergencies of the Great Depression and World War II.”
They also added that “The risk of catastrophe will be very high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule. If there is a war, it is likely to be one of maximum risk and effort – in other words, a total war. Every Fourth Turning has registered an upward ratchet in the technology of destruction, and in mankind’s willingness to use it. In the Civil War, the two capital cities would surely have incinerated each other had the means been at hand. In World War II, America invented a new technology of annihilation, which the nation swiftly put to use. This time, America will enter a Fourth Turning with the means to inflict unimaginable horrors and, perhaps, will confront adversaries who possess the same.”
Yet Americans will also enter the Fourth Turning with a unique opportunity to achieve a new greatness as a people. During the Fourth Turning, strong leaders will emerge to transform Third Turning issues and problems of crime, race, money, family, culture, and ethics into Fourth Turning solutions. If all goes well, spring will follow unto a perhaps different but stronger, more confident United States and history’s seasons will continue. But if we don’t recognize history’s four seasons and prepare for its winter that has been upon us since 2007-2008, we may not fare well as a nation, not culturally and certainly not economically.
* With contribution from Bruce H. Pugesek, President of Voyageur Research
Email the writer:
z.malaeb@alrroya.com
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